Total losses are rising across the automotive ecosystem, and the trend lines are not favorable. The question is no longer whether this is happening, but why and what a realistic, actionable response looks like. After years of discussing this issue with OEMs, insurers, collision centers, and industry leaders, one conclusion is clear: the causes are structural, and the solutions must be strategic.

Why Total Losses Are Increasing  

Several converging forces are driving total losses higher. Vehicle pricing has surged. Automakers have prioritized higher‑margin models, reducing the availability of base trims and pushing average new‑vehicle prices up nearly 30% in five years, now hovering around $50,000. As prices rise, affordability declines. 
 
Loan terms have stretched to compensate. Today, 23% of auto loans run 84 months. Negative equity has reached an all‑time high of $7,214 on average, with more than 22% of loans carrying over $10,000 in negative equity. Consumers are financing rapidly depreciating vehicles over longer periods, accelerating the likelihood that a damaged vehicle becomes a negative equity situation after a total loss. 
 
Ownership costs are climbing. Rising insurance premiums and overall cost‑of‑ownership pressures are pushing more buyers toward used vehicles, increasing demand and driving up used‑car prices as well. 
 
The vehicle fleet is aging. With fewer new vehicles entering the market, the average age of the U.S. fleet is approaching 13 years. Aging vehicles increase demand for repair parts, both domestically and internationally, which in turn drives salvage values higher becoming another contributor to total‑loss frequency. 
 
All of these factors compound into a growing number of total losses, creating frustration for consumers, insurers, OEMs, and collision centers alike.

What Won’t Fix the Problem  

Collision repair centers cannot control total losses, and they should not attempt to prevent them simply to preserve repair volume. Light‑repair and fleet work remain strong opportunities, but attempting to “save” borderline vehicles by negotiating repair costs introduces unnecessary risk. 
 
Proper repairs are not negotiable. As severity increases, so does complexity, time, and liability. Shops know that high‑severity repairs carry a higher probability of failure, and they should be cautious about taking on work that compromises safety or exposes them to downstream issues.

A More Effective Path Forward  

The most impactful way to address total losses is to empower consumers, and OEMs are uniquely positioned to do this at scale.

1. Engage the customer first after an accident. 

OEMs should prioritize early engagement, helping consumers understand their options and navigate the claims process. To do this effectively, they need visibility into vehicle damage as soon as possible. This is an effective use case for AI estimating technology.  

2. Strengthen repair standards and education. 

OEMs should invest in clear, documented repair processes and support collision centers and insurers in understanding what is required to execute proper repairs. Standardized, spec‑based equipment can make capital investments more viable for shops, improving repair consistency and ROI. An OEM can’t effectively ensure a proper repair, but they can enable the probability by focusing on these items.  

3. Offer meaningful protection products. 

If OEMs cannot reduce vehicle prices, they can reduce consumer exposure. Protection options should address the real friction points: deductibles, factory‑part coverage, rental support, diminished value after repairs, and total‑loss gaps. These offerings provide far more value than many traditional F&I add‑ons. As a consumer, would you rather buy nitrogen for your tires, or a product that lowers insurance costs and protects you from unexpected financial loss?

A Transformative Opportunity  

This approach is focused, practical, and executable. It enables OEMs to sell more parts, support safe and economically viable repairs, reward a proper repair path, and ultimately sell more replacement vehicles when a total loss occurs. If widely adopted, it could reshape the customer experience and strengthen the entire automotive ecosystem.