Nearly half the rise is attributed to large increases in original equipment tire shipments, owing to the resumption of domestic vehicle manufacturing as well as an increase in light vehicle sales driven by manufacturer’s incentive programs and low auto loan interest rates during the 2010 calendar year.
Replacement shipments will also experience significant growth in 2010 as a result of increases in vehicle miles travelled, stable energy prices, longer vehicle life and overall positive domestic economic conditions for both the consumer and commercial sectors.
An additional 2 percent growth in tire shipments is forecast for 2011, reaching nearly 290 million units as economic uncertainty will restrain growth for overall tire shipments.
The RMA’s Tire Market Analysis Committee forecast for key categories and their respective segments for 2010 and 2011 include:
- Original Equipment Passenger Tires: Passenger
OE tire shipments are anticipated to increase by about 11
million units, or nearly 44 percent, in 2010 as domestic
vehicle production resumes and consumers take advantage of
incentive programs and low interest rates. New vehicles sold
in the U.S. are projected to increase by 6 percent in 2011
due to continued improvement in economic conditions.
- Original Equipment Light Truck Tires: This
category will experience an approximate 31 percent increase,
or 900,000 units, in 2010 to nearly 3.7 million units due to
improved economic conditions respective to the commercial
sectors which utilize light truck vehicles. Little or no
growth is anticipated for 2011 as no increase is anticipated
in domestic vehicle production.
- Original Equipment Medium/Wide-Base/Heavy On-
Highway Commercial Truck Tires: A nearly 24 percent
increase to about 3 million units is anticipated for 2010 –
an increase of about 600,000 units – reflecting a
significant increase in the Industrial Production Index for
2010 in combination with pent up demand for new vehicles.
This sector is expected to continue to rebound in 2011 with
OE tire shipments projected to gain an approximate 750,000
units.
- Replacement Passenger Tires: Shipments for
this category are projected to increase about 9 million
units in 2010 to nearly 199 million units, representing a
growth rate of about 5 percent. However, growth in 2011 will
be tempered as continued economic uncertainties for the
consumer will result in a less than a 2 percent increase, or
nearly 3 million units. Respective to imports, the
imposition of a three year Chinese import tariff in
September 2009 decreased Chinese imports but effectively
increased imports from other Pacific Rim countries such that
non-RMA imports are forecast to increase nearly 6 percent in
2010. Additional increases in imports are anticipated for
2011 growing another approximate 5 percent.
- Replacement Light Truck Tires: The onset of
the economic recovery has also improved the outlook for LT
tire shipments with shipments forecasted to increase by
300,000 units to about 28 million units total, a gain of
nearly 1 percent. Little or no increase is anticipated in
2011 in keeping with commercial economic forecasts. This
segment represents the small commercial vehicle market –
mainly class 3 trucks – as well as a core group of
consumers.
- Replacement Medium/Wide-Base/Heavy On-Highway Commercial Truck Tires: The market is anticipated to increase by about 2.6 million units in 2010 to nearly 15.5 million units. Given the uneven economic rebound forecast for 2011, this market is expected to increase by about 600,000 units to nearly 16 million units.
