CHICAGO — In order to keep greenhouse gases from hitting critical mass by 2050, these gases need to be reduced by 50 percent. While not all of the responsibility falls on the automotive industry, a great deal does.
Just like the industry has an impact on the environment, the environment has an impact on the industry. So there are things to consider in moving the aftermarket ahead, says, Dr. John Wormald, managing partner, autoPOLIS. He presented “The Environmental Crisis, the Automotive Industry and the Aftermarket” during the Global Automotive Aftermarket Symposium (GAAS).
The amount of carbon dioxide rose one-third from 1990 to 2006, with energy industries leading the way followed by transportation. So to make the cuts that are needed, a number of changes are going to be needed, not only in the transportation sector, but across the board.
That will be through vehicle characteristics and driver habits, as well as our dependency on oil.
What drivers should want
Wormald has three stages of progress to decrease emissions. First, downsize vehicles, utilize existing technologies and make small model shifts and modest restrictions.
Second, in the next 10 to 20 years, implement new technologies and create more specialized vehicles, as well as opening new transportations packages and planning and control. But he warns that this is going to be difficult, but could be done by eliminating vehicle deadweight through more specialization, like small commuter vehicles.
“We might end up with a bigger parc of vehicles than we have today if we accept specialization,” Wormald suggests.
The third stage, out 20 to 50 years, is working more in habitat, developing new habitats and habits, and coupling mobility from GDP. He adds that means that emerging economies should not try to copy what countries like the United States has done in terms of motorized groupings.
So we’ll need to change our views of products characteristics, Wormald says by focusing on buying smaller cars (even if that means having a large one for longer trips and a small one for commuting), reducing weight, using more active safety measures and focusing on economy rather than power when it comes to performance. He also says the role of a vehicle needs to change from status to mobility.
“But that doesn’t mean we have to totally abandon product diversity or good design,” he cautions.
An oily situation
Wormald says that if the vehicle parc doubles and miles driven stays the same as we near the 2050 timeframe, simply cutting each vehicle’s emissions by 50 percent will bring us back to the starting point. So, he says, the industry would be back to looking at cutting it by nearly 75 percent.
But he says it’s not reality to think that by then the vehicles will consume only one-fourth of what they do now. However, controlling oil consumption can be and should be examined now.
Wormald shared data with attendees showing that by 2050, nearly 160 million barrels of oil will be consumed daily, up from just more than 80 barrels per day in 2005. Governmental regulations are calling for decreasing that to a 4-liter per 100 Km requirement. That means, he says, we must double the energy efficiency of new light duty vehicles. This can be done, including through use of hybrids.
“But even if you get 4L/100Km, if you double the parc and keep the miles driven where it is, you’re back to where you started,” Wormald notes.
And the aftermarket?
Getting some answers to these questions might depend on how the industry shapes itself.
Wormald says a number of changes could be coming, but will be slow to happen, as the vehicle parc takes 15 years to roll over. The aftermarket still has a number of challenges it is facing now:
• Shifts in brand and product mix
• New technologies
• Right to Repair
• Channel efficiency
• Overseas market
Because of these, Wormald says it’s vital that the independent repair market is trained to handle these new technologies and challenges. In doing so, the aftermarket needs to be aware, influential and ambitious
