Annual fuel cell vehicle sales to reach 670,000 by 2020, says Pike Research

Originally developed for space programs to provide power and water for space flights, fuel cells are now used for a variety of different applications including stationary power sources, materials-handling vehicles such as forklifts, and recharging small portable electronics.

According to a recent report from Pike Research, though, the adoption of fuel cells for use in vehicles is expected to accelerate rapidly over the next 10 years. Annual fuel cell vehicle (FCV) sales will reach 669,597 cars and trucks by 2020, with the United States (134,049 FCVs), China (129,241 FCVs) and Germany (126,783 FCVs) representing the largest markets.

“The entire growth of the fuel cell vehicle market balances on two key elements: the growth of hydrogen gas refueling stations and improvements in the cells themselves,” says industry analyst Dave Hurst.

While automakers will likely meet their commitments to bring FCVs to market by 2015, he adds, “convincing governments to subsidize the refueling infrastructure and gas companies to build the costly stations will be much harder.”

Therefore, Pike Research expects that FCVs will remain a small niche within the overall vehicle market for the first five or six years after they are introduced. Another key to expanding the market for fuel cell vehicles is cost reduction, which in turn requires the development of a competitive supplier base that does not yet exist. Fuel cell development for cars and trucks remains largely non-competitive, and the emergence of standards for components such as refueling nozzles, tank specifications, and pressure lines should help drive the technology toward wider adoption.

Pike Research‘s study, “Fuel Cell Vehicles”, analyzes the current state of fuel cell technology as it moves toward commercialization in light vehicles, medium/heavy duty trucks, and buses. The report examines fuel cell technologies, hydrogen as a fuel, and key drivers of market development for FCVs.

Detailed forecasts are provided for global research and development spending, fuel cell transit buses, fuel cell light vehicle production and sales, and revenue from FCV sales. Key market players are also profiled. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm’s website, www.pikeresearch.com.