After four consecutive reports of same month, year-over-year total vehicle travel increases, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Office of Highway Policy (OHPI) released preliminary data today for October 2009 indicating a sharp 0.54 percent decline compared to 2008.
According to “Market Analysis,” the monthly research e-newsletter published by the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA), the October decline caused year-to-date travel to fall from positive 0.28 percent at the end of September to positive 0.20 percent at the end of October. The rolling 12-month travel total stands at negative 0.35 percent.
Estimated at 250.783 billion miles, 2009 mileage is the lowest October total since 2002. In addition, the 2008 October travel total represented a 3.59 percent decrease compared to 2007, so October 2009 represents a 4.11 percent loss in travel compared to the levels reported before the economic downturn.
Geographically, mileage change was mixed. The South Atlantic and West both posted positive travel changes of less than one half or one percent. In the West, this was due almost entirely to a 1.2 percent increase of California, which accounts for about half of the region’s mileage.
The South Gulf, Northeast and North Central regions posted travel decreases of 1.17, 1.16, and 1.28 percent, respectively. Much like the mileage in the West region, the South Gulf travel report is dominated by the result of one state.
For the South Gulf, Texas travel is more than 40 percent of the total, and the 1.08 percent decline in October for the Lone Star State set the tone in spite of some wildly varying results elsewhere in the region.
The downturn in travel was not entirely unexpected, because every other part of the fledgling economic recovery has traveled a similar, bumpy road.
Full details and more analysis of mileage changes will be in the January 2010 issue of “Market Analysis.” For more information, visit www.aftermarketsuppliers.org.
