Beat the Clock?
LONDON (April 16, 2007) — Industries across the world are facing increasing pressure to help minimize threats to the environment, and the automotive industry is no exception, says Frost & Sullivan (F&S) in its recent study, "Strategic Analysis of Global Markets for Engine Technologies."
Rising concerns about the potential damage to the environment from vehicle emissions are forcing vehicle manufacturers worldwide to focus on developing advanced engine technologies to control emissions, improve fuel economy and enhance vehicle performance. Regulations with looming deadlines, increasing awareness, concern about global warming, rising fuel costs and consumer expectations have combined to create a perfect storm that automakers and suppliers are responding to at an increasing rate.
Regulation is driving innovation "Complying with stringent emission norms and offering increased fuel savings and better performance are some of the important factors that automakers and suppliers are working toward in terms of powertrain," says Vijayendra R. Rao, a F&S senior research analyst. "There is a definite trend toward advanced valvetrain systems for gasoline engines, increased penetration of direct injection for gasoline vehicles, engine downsizing and turbocharging."Despite this focus on developing and promoting environmentally friendly engine types, the firm projects that in 2015, 69 percent of vehicles globally will continue to run on gasoline, 26 percent of vehicles will use diesel, and the balance will be a blend of gas-electric hybrids and other alternate powertrains.
Global trend toward diesel Gasoline vehicles will tend to dominate in the major automotive markets such as North America and Japan, though F&S projects hybrid vehicles will also gain popularity in both regions. Diesel engines will establish a strong presence in Europe and India, with their market share in India set to grow from 29 percent in 2005 to 50 percent by 2015.Alternative fuel vehicles will also gain market share as the global focus on reducing emissions increases. The number of these vehicles will increase to 3 million worldwide by 2015, with ethanol and natural gas vehicles expected to be the most prominent among them. Hybrid vehicles will dominate the market for alternative powertrain technologies.
Smaller engines, better performance Advanced technologies such as variable valvetrain (VVT) are fast gaining in popularity and look set to displace conventional fixed timing systems for gasoline vehicles. Global penetration rates of these technologies will reach 25 percent to 30 percent by 2015. Injection technologies will follow the same trend, gaining an edge over fixed timing for gasoline engines, as these help comply with emission norms. They are likely to attain penetration rates of 15 percent to 20 percent in gasoline vehicles worldwide.Turbocharged engines will appear in a large number of diesel vehicles globally, with penetration rates expected to reach 10 percent to 15 percent by 2015 in North America alone.
"This will have a positive impact on their penetration rates, which are likely to exceed 55 percent among gasoline vehicles in North America by 2015," says Rao. "Going forward, future-generation vehicles will also witness downsized engines with additional boosting capacity to retain the same power, while reducing emissions and fuel consumption."
No easy fix Rao concludes that while the trend toward smaller, higher-performing powertrains is clear, it is not without challenges. Automakers and suppliers who are planning to introduce advanced engine and alternative powertrain technologies need to optimize the high costs of these new technologies with engine size to keep innovation affordable.In addition, consumers in general are slow to adopt new technologies upon introduction, so manufacturers will need to be prepared to weather the adoption time-lag. One means to bridging this gap is for governments at all levels — who also have an interest in cleaner vehicles and fuel economizing — to provide incentives and promote earlier adoption, rather than pay the social costs downstream.
(Source: Frost & Sullivan)
