Driving Changes In The Transportation Landscape
LOS ANGELES (Nov. 13, 2005) - The trend of rising gas prices is causing Americans to alter their driving habits and to either use or consider using transit when the option is available, according to a consumer survey released today by the Urban Land Institute (ULI), a 70-year-old non-profit education and research organization based in Los Angeles.
The results of the survey of 1,000 Americans conducted by Harris Interactive (which also conducts the Harris Poll) in early October 2005 reinforced the need to build and rebuild urban regions in ways that offer alternatives to car-dependent development, according to representatives of the Institute. Respondents were asked a series of questions and asked to reply with a ranking between one and 10, with 10 being very concerned. The results are statistically accurate to a 95 percent confidence level.
Figure 1.Top Concerns By AgeISSUE18-3435-5455+Education9.09.08.7Crime and Drugs8.88.58.8Gas Prices8.58.48.4Economy8.38.38.3War in Irag8.28.28.4Air Quality7.97.77.7Traffic Congestion6.66.77.1(Table source: ULI)
The primary objective of the study was to measure consumer attitudes toward issues, such as transportation behavior - modes people use for both commuting and non-commuting trips; why consumers choose or reject alternatives to driving; the extent to which people would use or consider using an alternate mode of transportation; and the likelihood of using commuter rail transit or bus service.
What's important Gas prices were in the top three areas of concern - by age, by residency type and location. Respondents of all ages, in all regions and all locations listed gas prices as one of the top three issues of concern, ranking behind education and crime. See Figure 1. This held true when respondents were sorted by type of residency: rural, urban and suburban. See Figure 2. As well, this held true over regions - West, South, Midwest and East.The majority of the respondents indicated that rising gas prices had caused them to make some changes in both commuting and non-commuting travel. While nearly 87 percent said they had driven alone to work during the previous week, 40 percent said they had used alternative methods of commuting during the previous year, with the favored alternatives being car pooling and using transit or bus systems. Of those who commuted by alternative methods, nearly 25 percent did so to save money.
In terms of non-commute trips such as errands, 81 percent said they have started combining more trips and 45 percent have eliminated some non-commuting trips. When asked why they preferred to commute alone, 38 percent cited convenience, while another 37 percent answered there was no alternative.
Ironically, traffic congestion consistently ranked lowest among the concerns: 7 percent claimed their commute had improved in the past two years, 60 percent maintained there had been no change and 33 percent felt their commute had worsened. In particular, a higher percentage claimed a worse commute in the South and the West.
Direct and convenient transit "The findings of this survey clearly show that consumers are rethinking how much money and time they are spending getting from one place to another," said ULI Senior Resident Fellow Edward McMahon. "It underscores the need for more efficient development that gives people more choices in where they live, work and play." Figure 2. Top ConcernsBy Type Of ResidencyISSUE18-3435-5455+Education8.69.09.1Crime and Drugs8.28.78.5Gas Prices8.48.68.2Economy8.08.38.2War in Irag7.78.18.3Air Quality7.27.67.8Traffic Congestion6.66.47.0(Table source: ULI)
Of those who drove alone to work, 38 percent said solo driving was more convenient, and 37 percent said they had no alternative. Gas prices caused 35 percent of all respondents to buy a more fuel-efficient vehicle. Residents of the West, Midwest and South respectively were the more likely to switch to fuel-efficient cars than those in the East, likely reflecting a higher dependency on autos in those regions compared to the East, where transit ridership is more prevalent. Moreover, half of all the survey participants said they would switch to commuter rail or bus service if it were closer to their home or work.
The "tipping" point According to ULI, an extended period of higher energy prices could curtail fringe suburban growth and dampen demand for big houses with their larger heating and cooling bills. UTI also points to the continued downtown migration by young, childless professionals and, to a lesser extent, empty-nesters as feeding an overall attempt to conserve more gas and save travel time. "High gas pump prices and suburban congestion are stimulating more interest in urban alternatives - 24-hour downtowns and "subcities." Transit-oriented development near subway or light rail lines almost can't miss."McMahon noted that the survey findings suggest that higher gas prices may be the "tipping point" that causes a general shift in consumer attitudes regarding development that is more concentrated and which mixes uses, versus sprawling, isolated-use development that is heavily reliant on autos for mobility. Although the survey was conducted soon after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita - when gas prices had jumped higher than their current level - the cumulative effect of rising prices "may ultimately help make the case for more dense development that saves both land and gas," McMahon said.
Planning ahead "The central emphasis of much urban transportation planning is getting people out of the car," said ULI Senior Resident Fellow Robert Dunphy. The survey results show that growing traffic congestion and sky-high gas prices are causing people to seriously consider ways to reduce driving through fewer and more efficient trips, car pooling, walking, transit and moving to locations where they do not have to drive as much, he noted."These changing attitudes will reinforce the strength of the market that we have seen for development in places with a diversity of travel options. The fact that people have actually tried alternatives to the car shows that walking and transit must be designed as part of communities, rather than added later." The support expressed by survey respondents for both rail and transit shows that development in communities offering nearby transit and convenient walking destinations "gives those transportation modes an advantage, rather than trying to get them to work in suburbs that are car-dependent," Dunphy added.
The relatively low concern expressed for traffic congestion is that residents of urban regions are finding their own solutions to traffic woes, as shown in Figure 3, such as the relatively drastic step of moving closer to where they work. For instance, 21 percent of the survey respondents indicated they had decided to look for a home nearer to their jobs. Not surprisingly, the survey respondents aged 18 to 34, who were least likely to have school-aged children, expressed the strongest desire to uproot and live closer to work. Similarly, urban residents were the most willing to move; they were also the most likely to start walking and bicycling more to conserve gas.
Figure 3. How Have Rising Gas PricesChanged Driving Behavior?
Conversely, residents in suburban and rural areas were more likely than those in urban areas to purchase a more fuel-efficient car. They were far less likely than urban residents to increase bicycling and walking, or to look for a home closer to work, suggesting that their current living environment is not conducive to transportation alternatives.
Moving forward Bill Hudnut, ULI senior resident fellow for Public Policy, pointed out that decisions people are making on how and where they live and work are due in large part to a radical change in the metropolitan form. As urban growth has mushroomed outward over the past 50 years, the economic dominance of downtown cores has diminished, with central business districts being replaced by central social districts, he said."We have moved from a heliocentric [metropolitan] form to one that is far more dispersed - a form that resembles a constellation with many nodes of development," he said. With multiple centers of employment and recreation becoming increasingly commonplace, some residents of outlying areas see little reason to travel downtown, either for business or personal trips, Hudnut noted. As a result, a great challenge for future development - as evidenced in consumer concern over gas prices - involves creating better connections between individual communities, he said.
In the outlying areas, master-planned communities that offer transit facilities to accommodate bicyclists, bus riders and pedestrians seeking to complete their trips without an automobile will become increasingly popular, he predicted. ULI anticipates that during the next real estate cycle, "places without mass transit will struggle ... Transit-oriented development will gain momentum as more suburban agglomerations expand light-rail initiatives to reduce dependency on car travel ... In the outer suburbs, urban town centers will be the rage."
According to McMahon, there are two main ways to respond to the metropolitan evolution. The first is to develop more self-contained live-work-play communities with minimal ties to or reliance on the greater region. However, while this type of development improves mobility within the immediate community (such as allowing children more freedom to ride bikes between blocks), it does little to alleviate the need to drive to other areas of the urban region, he explained.
A better choice, he said, is the development of more interdependent communities with transit connections linking each community to each other as well as the downtown core. This type of growth is more conducive to greater regional cooperation and is more preferable in terms of long-term economic growth, McMahon said.
(Source: Urban Land Institute)
