According to the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, 158,160 people repair and refinish automotive vehicle bodies and straighten vehicle frames. Another 52,650 operate or tend painting machines to paint surfaces of transportation equipment, such as automobiles, buses, trucks, trains, boats and airplanes. This include painters in auto body repair facilities. So, collectively you have roughly 200,000 repairers in the nation's collision centers. That data from May 2005 doesn't include office personnel or other workers performing vital jobs affiliated with shops, such as detailers and PBE jobbers.
So what happens to all of these people when 20 percent to 30 percent of the nation's shops are no longer around? Those are the projections that have been given numerous times by many sources and they are very real estimates given the state of today's market. Vehicles are harder to repair because of technological changes; total losses continue to be a major drag on shops; insurers continue to pressure shops to run more efficiently. All of these trends and more will diminish the size of the industry.
Now I realize I'm probably not telling you anything you don't already know. You see the stresses and challenges every day. But given the fact that 50,000 jobs are in jeopardy in the next few years, I can't understand the lack of interest some shops are taking in the looming air quality rule changes in California — changes that will require shops to adopt waterborne refinish products by January 2009. In Europe, waterborne accelerated the decline in shops and we can, therefore, assume the same will happen in the U.S. This technology will demand an investment in training time and perhaps money (for new equipment). Shops will either accept these changes willingly and be ready to work when the time comes or they won't. And those who won't will disappear.
Despite these obvious challenges, some shops don't have a clue about the coming changes, or they simply don't care. During our research for this month's Paint and Refinish supplement (inside), we contacted shops and suppliers in both the South Coast Air Quality Management District and the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District. These two districts are at the center of rules changes taking place on the West Coast. Despite the obvious urgency to begin examining waterborne technology and figuring out how to use these products before the rules become mandatory, too many shops are ignorant on the issue. A painter at one Los Angeles shop simply exclaimed, "I don't know what you're talking about. We don't use waterborne paints here!" Clerks at some PBE stores had heard nothing about the new rules.
The enclosed supplement is one way we are attempting to get the word out about waterborne refinish products and the issues involved with implementation. But industry-wide we need to do more to make sure the shops and PBE jobbers who need to know about these changes understand the ramifications of what's ahead.
Otherwise, we may reach that 20 percent to 30 percent decline in nationwide shops far sooner than we expected.
Michael Willins
