Recently, I've been analyzing repair order data for a number of our private clients, and what I've found should get every collision repair business owner's attention.

When we looked at first-quarter data from 2025, roughly 22% of repair orders carried more than 114 labor hours. These were the larger, more complex repairs that many shops rely on to drive both labor sales and gross profit.

This year, however, the story changed.

Analyzing first-quarter 2026 data, we found that the percentage of repair orders exceeding 114 labor hours had dropped to somewhere between 8% and 11% for many shops. In other words, those larger repairs have declined by 10 to 12 percentage points in just a year.

Data always tells a story. The question is: What is this data trying to tell us?

Part of the explanation is obvious. As total losses continue to increase, fewer heavily damaged vehicles make it into our repair facilities. But I don't believe total losses are the only factor.

I also believe ADAS technology is doing exactly what it was designed to do.

Vehicles equipped with advanced safety systems are avoiding some accidents altogether and reducing the severity of others. Lower-speed impacts often result in less structural damage and fewer labor-intensive repairs. That's good news for consumers, but it changes the economics of collision repair.

The reality is that many shops have built estimating habits around larger repairs. We've spent years teaching estimators how to identify non-included operations on quarter panel replacements, rear body repairs, and major structural jobs. Those lessons are still important, but the volume of those repairs appears to be shrinking. That means we need to shift our focus.

Today, the opportunity is no longer just in the large jobs. It's in maximizing labor opportunities on small- and medium-sized repairs.

When I conduct seminars, I'll often ask someone to come to the front of the room and give me 10 non-included operations associated with replacing a quarter panel. Most people can do that fairly easily.

Then I'll ask them to identify five non-included paint operations associated with replacing a fender. That's when the room gets quiet.

What we've discovered is that many estimators know how to find additional operations on the big jobs but overlook them on the smaller repairs that now make up a larger percentage of their workload.

Think about a fender replacement. Removing static is not included. Refinishing the backside of the panel is not included. Applying gravel guard where required is not included. Those operations can add meaningful labor dollars when properly documented.

The same principle applies to bumper covers, doors, hoods, deck lids, and countless other routine repairs. As an industry, we need to get back to the fundamentals.

Tools like the SCRS Blueprint Optimization Tool (BOT), the Collision Advice/CRASH Network Who Pays for What survey, and other estimating support programs can help increase awareness. But technology alone isn't the answer.

The real solution is understanding your estimating system's included and not-included operations. Whether your system calls them P-pages, H-notes, labor exclusions, or something else, estimators need to know them inside and out.

Years ago, many of us learned estimating by reading printed MOTOR guides and Mitchell manuals. We had to understand the estimating procedure pages because there was no shortcut.

Today, computerized estimating has made the process faster, but it has also made some people complacent. Point-and-click estimating is not the same as understanding what is actually included in a labor allowance.

One of the best lessons I ever learned came from Roger Cada, formerly of State Farm: If it's not listed as (included), it's not included. It doesn't automatically become free simply because it isn't called out elsewhere as not included. Estimators must evaluate every operation necessary to return the vehicle to pre-accident condition.

The big jobs may be becoming less common, but profitable estimating opportunities haven't disappeared. They've simply moved.

The shops that thrive over the next few years will be the ones that learn how to capture every legitimate labor operation on the small and medium-sized repairs that increasingly define today's collision repair market.