PartsTrader's Horn Predicts Claims Volume Down in 2026

Greg Horn, chief industry relations officer at PartsTrader, looked at the key factors for predicting a decrease in claims volume in 2026 in a blog post on January 14.   

According to Horn, 2025 was an unusual year, with falling claims volume across the industry, but rising total loss frequency. Several factors influence claims frequency, such as fuel prices, weather, and increased deductibles. A reduction in fuel prices, which means more miles driven by the motoring public and increased potential collisions. 

The weather is more nuanced. Massive amounts of snow reduce winter driving and would result in a decrease in accident frequency in those areas. The key is to get enough snow to make conditions slick, but not enough to discourage driving altogether. A second weather factor to watch for is icy conditions in southern states, where most of those states do not have road salt spreading capabilities. 

Increased state minimum limits, such as the newly enacted increases in Virginia, California, and Utah, cause premiums to increase, and many drivers will opt for higher deductibles or eliminate coverages to offset those cost jumps.  

Total loss frequency has a few factors to watch. The first is used car values, which are linked to the “repairability equation” for carriers. The higher the value, the more likely the vehicle is to be deemed repairable. So far, experts indicate that used car prices are expected to remain high but stabilize in 2026. 

The second major factor is the prevalence of advanced driver assist systems in the U.S. car parc, which add expensive components and recalibration costs to repair estimates and, with that increase, result in more total losses. ADAS standard equipment features in the car parc continues to rise and lead to lower claim volume for smaller repairable claims. 

Horn predicts that, with the understanding that weather is the wild card, increased premiums and stabilizing used car values would indicate an overall decrease in claims volume for 2026. 

Read all of Horn’s insights on the PartsTrader website here.