U.S. Auto Market Faces Slowdown and BEV Market Downshift in 2025

The U.S. auto market is experiencing a slowdown with November 2025 sales projected to decline 8% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing affordability issues and market adjustments, while the BEV market share faces a 5.3% drop due to inventory and policy impacts.

Dec. 2, 2025

2 min read

According to the latest forecast from S&P Global Mobility, the U.S. auto market is showing clear signs of a slowdown, with new light vehicle sales in November 2025 projected to drop 8% compared to the previous year. The estimated 1.26 million units sold translates to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.5 million units, maintaining a sluggish pace for the second consecutive month.

Concurrently, the battery-electric vehicle (BEV) market is experiencing a notable downshift after a third-quarter sales surge. BEV market share is forecast to drop to 5.3%, attributed to a “hangover effect” and dwindling inventory.

Key findings from the S&P Global Mobility forecast include:

Broad Market Slowdown: November sales are expected to be down 8% from the year-ago level and down over 1% from the prior month. This reflects ongoing market adjustments and what our analysts describe as "stubbornly sticky" new vehicle affordability concerns for consumers.

A Significant BEV “Hangover”: The battery-electric vehicle segment is facing a notable downshift. BEV market share is estimated to be just 5.3% in November, a significant drop expected to continue through the first half of 2026. This is attributed to a "hangover effect" from a sales surge in the third quarter and dwindling BEV inventory conditions.

Uncertainty from Policy and Demand: The future of BEV demand growth remains increasingly uncertain, with potential impacts from auto policy like the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that could further temper long-term growth.

Weaker End to the Year: The fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to fall below the strong results of Q4 2024, contributing to an estimated full-year 2025 volume of 16.1-16.2 million units.

The U.S. auto market is at a pivotal moment, grappling with persistent affordability challenges and a significant recalibration in the electric vehicle segment. As manufacturers and consumers adapt to a changing incentive landscape, the sales environment will continue to evolve

The full analysis is available here.