Auto Sales Rise in March as Automakers, Consumers Brace for April Tariffs

S&P Global Mobility auto sales estimates for March and the first quarter of 2025 are higher than 2024 as automakers and consumers prepare for April automobile tariffs.

S&P Global mobility projects auto sales volume in March at 1.45 million units. It estimates March 2025 U.S. auto sales to translate to an estimated sales pace of 16.3 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate). 

This would bring the SAAR average in the first quarter of the year to a level of 16.0 million units. While the first quarter of 2025 reflects progress from last year’s reading of 15.5 million units, it might be the high mark for a while, as auto tariffs take effect in April.

“Automakers, by way of incentives, and savvy consumers are likely attempting to get ahead of future uncertainty surrounding auto pricing levels by taking advantage of March deals,” said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. “Downside risks to the auto demand and production environment abound as consumers face potential higher auto prices as a result of expected tariffs to imported vehicles and parts.”  

The S&P Global Mobility US auto outlook for 2025 reflects sustained, but more moderate growth levels for light vehicle sales. Consumer pressures and potential auto tariffs create notable downside risks to volume estimates at this time.  

Continued development of battery-electric vehicle sales remains an assumption in the longer-term S&P Global Mobility light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, it anticipates some month-to-month volatility. The March BEV share is expected to reach 8.5%, an increase from the February reported figures, and reflects the uneasiness of automakers, dealers and consumers as they continue to digest potential changes to BEV incentives.