June 2012 new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,242,301 units, up 18.1 percent from June 2011 and down 6.9 percent from May 2012 (on an unadjusted basis), according to www.TrueCar.com.
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The June 2012 forecast translates into a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 13.6 million new car sales, up from 11.5 million in June 2011 and down from 13.8 million in May 2012. Retail sales are up 15.7 percent compared to June 2011 and down 6.9 percent from May 2012. Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 20.5 percent of total industry sales in June 2012. The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,432 in June 2012, which represents an increase of 1.5 percent from June 2011 and decrease of 4.8 percent from May 2012.
Used car sales are estimated to be 4,774,707, up 6.3 percent from June 2011 and up 10.8 percent from May 2012. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:4 for June 2012.
"The remarkable recovery of Toyota and Honda continued in June," said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Market Intelligence for TrueCar.com. "Uncertainty in the financial markets brought selling rates below 14 million units for the second month in a row. Despite the relative slow down in the last few weeks, the first half sales results this year indicate a relatively healthy car industry; perhaps the brightest spot in an otherwise struggling U.S. economy. We expect second half of 2012 to average around 14.5 million units, which will take us to over 15 million new cars sold in 2013.”
“Average incentive spending for all automakers will hit its lowest levels this month since last year in the months following the natural disasters in Japan and prior to that since January 2007," said Kristen Andersson, Senior Analyst at TrueCar.com. "Toyota will post strong retail sales this month while decreasing incentive spending as consumers continue to snap up the popular Camry, Corolla, and Prius."
TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at the Truth Blog on www.TrueCar.com.
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
