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Auto Aftermarket Industry Expected to Grow Through 2016

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May 16, 2013—The U.S. automotive aftermarket industry is expected to grow 3.4 percent annually through 2016 to $263.8 billion, according to a channel forecast model sponsored by the Automotive Aftermarket Industry Association (AAIA) and the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA).

This growth would add $32.6 billion to the economy.

According to AASA president and chief operating officer Bill Long, the forecast model shows that growth in population, employment and income will lead to an increase in the number of vehicles on the road and miles driven. In turn, this would result in long-term aftermarket growth.

"The forecast model demonstrates that despite strong new vehicle sales, historic high gas prices and a flattening of miles driven, our industry is poised for steady growth," said Kathleen Schmatz, president and CEO of AAIA. "Why? The average age of vehicles is 11.3 years, the oldest ever, and the age mix of vehicles continues to favor older vehicles, creating a robust sweet spot for service and repair."

IHS Global Insight created the forecast model using data collected from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board and U.S. Census Bureau, as well as IMR and Polka Data, and proprietary IHS economic analysis and forecasting models.

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